The hottest external economic recovery is expected

2022-08-06
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External economic recovery predicts that China's export growth in the fourth quarter will turn positive

external economic recovery predicts that China's export growth in the fourth quarter will turn positive

China Construction Machinery Information

Guide: in the fourth quarter of this year, the year-on-year growth of exports may turn positive or become a probability event. Recently, a number of Chinese and foreign-funded institutions said that China's export growth was obvious under the condition of external economic warming. No matter from the total amount, by product and by region, the year-on-year export has narrowed. It is expected that the export in the fourth quarter of this year is expected to turn from negative to

in the fourth quarter of this year, the positive year-on-year growth rate of exports may become a probability event. Recently, a number of Chinese and foreign-funded institutions said that China's export growth was obvious under the condition of external economic warming. In terms of total volume, products and regions, the year-on-year export has narrowed, and it is expected that the export in the fourth quarter of this year is expected to turn from negative to positive

external economic recovery

Nomura Securities believes that the US economy is raising hope. In addition to the recent signs of recovery in the real estate sector, the record decline in inventories in the first half of 2009 laid the foundation for a more substantial rebound in production in the second half of 2009. More and more data on the US economy are raising hopes. The longest and most severe recession since the 1930s may finally come to an end. Many of the improvements in data reflect the inherent cyclical characteristics, but low interest rates, the stabilizing credit market and the rising stock market provide fundamental support to ensure that this rebound can be sustained

Shenyin Wanguo Securities Research Institute said that the investment theme under the expectation of export recovery has been intensively recommended recently. The main reason for paying attention to this theme is that it has been seen at the worst, and the subsequent US economic recovery is a high probability event to boost China's exports; At present, the data such as the rebound of orders in the micro aspect have further enhanced the expectations in this regard. As the state's stimulus policy is gradually acting on the real economy, stimulating private investment and thus consumption, with the decline of inventory level, the United States will enter an era of inventory replenishment in the second half of the year, which is good news for China's exports. The euro zone, Japan, South Korea and other regions as China's major export destinations. The economy is also improving day by day, and the demand for Chinese products will pick up in the second half of the year. Shenwan Research Institute believes that export recovery is expected in the second half of the year

according to Shenwan Research Institute, recent research shows that resource countries are the highlight of the global economy. Port companies' monthly exports increased year-on-year on-year routes: South Africa line, South America line, Australia line and East America line. Export companies also reported that orders in the United States recovered faster than those in Europe. In terms of goods, the centralized transportation companies reported that: furniture exports to the United States have recovered since May, with a month on month increase of 10%, exceeding the month on month recovery of% of the overall volume of centralized transportation (Shanggang group also mentioned the recovery of furniture exports); The demand for electronic products continues to rise (Americans stay at home more, and the increased demand for entertainment electronic products is also the core content of technological progress). The transportation volume of furniture and department stores in Europe is picking up

Changjiang Securities also said that the US unemployment rate has dropped and the economic recession may be coming to an end. The US Department of labor announced that the unemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage point to 9.4%. This indicates that the US unemployment situation eased in July, and the unemployment rate fell unexpectedly, which further confirms that the US economic recession is coming to an end

export growth is expected to turn positive in the fourth quarter.

it is reported that Shenwan Research Institute has also organized a survey of Jiangsu and Zhejiang first-line export enterprises. The information obtained shows that the chain comparison situation is improving, and the worst moment has passed; Port transportation, home appliances and other industries have a positive trend

port transport enterprises said that the idle capacity of global container shipping decreased, 11% in June and 10% in July; In August, both the US line and the European line are planning to raise prices (additional peak season surcharges), which is supported by the rebound in cargo volume; July should be a small trough for European line centralized transportation, but it has increased this year on a month on month basis. Since March, the volume of foreign trade containers in Shanghai port has been basically stable and rebounded slightly. Even the European line, which fell the most this year, also rebounded in July

export enterprises such as home appliances and machinery said that the export orders of air-conditioning accessories companies have rebounded since June, with the fastest rebound in Japan and South Korea. In June, foreign sales have achieved a positive growth of about 10% year-on-year. In July, exports to the United States increased significantly month on month (after July, it should be the traditional off-season). The volume of export orders in August was the same as that in July. In the first half of the year, the export volume of electrical equipment companies has been rising month on month (except in May). In June, it returned to positive growth year on year, with a growth rate of 7%

however, Shenwan Research Institute also said that different export companies still take a cautious attitude towards 4. The sustainability of export recovery after power on

Nomura Securities also predicted that China's exports would recover slowly. After the crisis, the excessive borrowing consumption pattern of western countries, especially the United States, will be improved, and the consumption level will be slightly adjusted. Therefore, it is unlikely that China's exports will recover to the pre crisis level

in addition, China's exports are seasonal. The export volume is relatively high in April, July, September and November of each year, while it is low in February of each year. Due to the high export volume in the third quarter of last year and the influence of tail raising factors, it is unlikely that the year-on-year growth rate of exports will turn positive. However, in the fourth quarter of 2008, exports have been at a low level. In addition, the current signs of export recovery are obvious, so it is likely that exports will turn positive in the fourth quarter of this year. Nomura Securities also expects that China's labor market will tighten, leading to wage growth. In fact, the basic wages of unskilled manufacturing workers in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, China are now higher than those in Thailand, the Philippines, India, Indonesia and Vietnam. The declining inflow of foreign direct investment in China may benefit ASEAN economies with relatively low income levels

early key work is in Europe, South America and Southeast Asia

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