The hottest steel price is out of the parabola, an

  • Detail

The steel price has stepped out of the parabola and "there is no demand in the downstream" and is facing continued downward exploration

the steel price has gone from a vigorous surge to a step-by-step downward exploration, and finally was returned to its original shape. This cycle took only more than two months. On January 10, the steel price index of Xiben Shinkansen was reported at 4140 points, falling back to the fundamentals at the end of October 2017

as for the roller coaster market of steel price, insiders believe that it is the irrational increase of steel price in the first half and the rational return in the second half. Some steel makers also pointed the problem to the mismatch between supply and demand, saying that "there is no demand downstream"

the steel price has a round in two months

in just two months, the steel price has drawn a gorgeous parabola: on December 1, 2017, after six years, the steel price reached a historical level, and the steel price index of Xiben Shinkansen broke through 5000 on that day. However, this is beneficial to detect materials with very large or very small elongation and get accurate experimental results. However, the good times did not last long. As of January 10, the steel price index of Xiben Shinkansen had fallen to 4140 points, which was 5230 points away from the highest point, a decrease of 1090 points

my steel analyst xuxiangchun said in an interview with China Times: "In the month of 2017, steel prices rose by a large margin, up to 1000 yuan, covering the fields of national defense science and technology industry, weapons and equipment, personnel training, socialization of military security, national defense mobilization and so on. The main reason is that the reduction of supply caused by environmental protection and production restriction, and the market optimism promoted the irrational rise of steel prices, which rose to a high level of 5000 yuan."

"originally, the end of the year has entered the off-season of market demand, which does not support such a crazy rise in steel prices. At the same time, the high steel prices, on the one hand, make the profit per ton of steel more than 1000 yuan, on the other hand, have a huge cost pressure on the downstream industry." Xu Xiangchun said

the off-season market has not spread to the whole winter, and the domestic steel market is still weak and downward. According to the "my steel" news, on January 8, the price of rebar in 23 of the 25 major cities, including Shanghai, Jinan, Tianjin and Guangzhou, fell by yuan/ton; Hot coil prices fell by yuan/ton in 21 cities including Shanghai, Beijing, Wuhan and Shenyang. In addition, nine domestic construction steel production enterprises reduced the ex factory price by yuan/ton

Xu Xiangchun believes that after the market sentiment calms down, the steel price will naturally return to a rational level

demand weakened, construction steel took the lead in price reduction

steel price callback is considered to be a reasonable return, more is the reduction of downstream steel demand, construction steel took the lead in price reduction

the latest data monitored by Lange Steel's cloud business platform showed that on January 10, the average price of grade III deformed steel bars in the top ten cities was 406, and the samples needed to be replaced frequently was 6 yuan/ton, down 313 yuan/ton from the same period of the previous week and 708 yuan/ton from the same period of the previous month. However, the relative decline of the plate industry slowed down. The monitoring data of Lange steel cloud business platform showed that on January 10, the average price of hot rolled coil in the top ten cities was 4189 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan from the same period of the previous week and 142 yuan from the same period of the previous month

wangguoqing, director of Lange Iron and Steel Research Center, told Huaxia times: "in December 2017, the market showed a surge and fall, and began to decline significantly in the middle and late ten days. In January, the market continued to fluctuate and fall. This is mainly due to the weakening demand, the high price in the early stage, and the accumulation of market risks."

it is understood that the demand for steel in the northern region is weak, and some steel mills cut prices significantly in order to expand sales. In contrast, steel mills in the South and East China can only cut prices in order to prevent external steel from entering the province and seize market share. Under this background, the price of construction steel across the country fell sharply in December

as for the decline of steel prices from high, a steel trader told, "many construction sites are shut down in winter, and the demand for steel is reduced. The highest rebar in the region where the company is located was about 4800 yuan/ton, and now it is down to yuan/ton."

"there is no demand in the downstream, and the price of threaded steel strip head is reduced by yuan/ton in more than half a month." A staff member of a large private steel enterprise in Hebei said frankly that near the end of the year, the steel plant is also willing to sell goods at a low price to boost its performance

will steel prices continue to decline

what will happen to the steel price when it returns to the original point in the future? Will it rise around the corner or continue to fall

Qiu Yuecheng, chief researcher of Xiben Shinkansen, wrote that at present, North and South businesses are still in a wait-and-see and game situation with steel mills for winter storage, and social inventory and steel mill inventory are passively accumulated. With the passage of time, the transmission of steel plant resources to the trade sector has become increasingly impeded, and steel plant prices are facing downward pressure with subtle differences between the two. It is still difficult to stop the short-term decline of spot steel prices

however, the above steel traders predict that "it is estimated that the steel price will change next week (January 15 - January 21), because in previous years, large customers with abundant funds will store in winter at the end of the year and seize the low inventory of steel price."

"after this round of sharp correction, the steel price has basically returned to a balanced price range acceptable to all aspects of the market, so the space for further decline may be very limited." Xu Xiangchun also expressed to

it is noteworthy that the steel market has ushered in a significant positive. On January 8, 2017, the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the implementation method of capacity replacement in the steel industry, which said that the replacement proportion should be tightened, supervision should be strengthened, and reduction replacement should be implemented

Xu Xiangchun analyzed: "the introduction of the capacity replacement document is a good thing for the medium and long-term market in the future. The document regulates various behaviors of capacity replacement, so that some phenomena of capacity expansion by sidestepping and exploiting loopholes can be curbed. In the future, the replacement of market capacity can be carried out in an orderly and controllable range, avoiding falling into the vicious circle of blind expansion of capacity again."

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI