The hottest steel price jumped up and down, optimi

Steel prices have jumped up and down, optimistic about the market in the first quarter of 2013

in the past two weeks, steel prices have jumped up and down. First, as the weather turned cold, the main 1305 contract of futures fell by nearly 180 yuan from the high point, with a 5% decline. At the same time, the price of the spot market also fell by nearly 200 points from north to south. Subsequently, on the first trading day in December, steel prices rebounded strongly, with the main force 1305 rising by more than 2% a day

we believe that this rebar price decline is a normal seasonal adjustment market, and the time and space for its decline are limited, but it is still in the period of steel price adjustment. In the first quarter of 2013, there will be a round of rising steel prices driven by the replenishment of stocks by consumers and traders

the daily output of crude steel is still at a high level, and the supply pressure has promoted the signing of cooperation agreements between Xiangbang composite materials company and COMAC Beijing Research Institute, Southwest Aluminum, etc. In early November, the average daily output of crude steel in China reached 1.957 million tons, an increase of 1.6% month on month. Since September, steel prices have been rising, and the adjustment of steel prices began in late November. Therefore, the capacity utilization rate of steel mills should be maintained at a high level in the near future. In December, the blast furnace overhaul at the end of the year and the decline in steel prices may lead to a slight decline in output, but on the whole, the supply of steel remains high. As the weather turns colder day by day, some areas in the north have been frozen and snowed heavily. Construction projects in central and Western China and Northeast China will be stopped due to the weather. That is to say, when the supply is at a high level but the demand declines seasonally, the market supply pressure will increase and the steel price will be seasonally adjusted

in winter, the ore price will be adjusted periodically. In the past two months, due to the replenishment of the ore after the cleaning of the ore by the steel plant and the closure of some small mines in China before the 18th CPC National Congress, the ore price has been relatively strong. At present, the steel demand is in the off-season. Due to the weakening of terminal demand and the year-end maintenance of the steel plant, the purchase of ore by the steel plant will decline, and the prices of raw materials such as ore will also be adjusted. Although the ore inventory in the port has declined to a certain extent, since ore traders have not made money since this year, once the ore price falls, it will pose a threat to the capital chain of traders. As the end of the year approaches, market funds are increasingly tight. These factors will exert pressure on the ore price, which will be detrimental to the steel price

in the medium and long term, the price of ore will also decline. As the global marginal ore price, China's ore price is about $100/ton. At present, China is considering reducing taxes and fees by 10%, which can at least reduce the production cost of China's mines to about $90/ton. Therefore, only from this point of view, the ore price also has some room for decline

social inventory is at a low level, which is conducive to the replenishment market in the first quarter of next year. Although the social inventory of steel has increased slightly this week, the steel inventory of 11.95 million tons and the rebar inventory of 4.98 million tons are low compared with the same period in recent years. From winter to spring, even if there is only a seasonal recovery in consumption in the first quarter of next year, it will also make end consumers and traders take turns to replenish the stock, and the steel price will rise, while the lower social inventory will only increase the range of price rise

not to mention that some infrastructure projects approved by the government in the second half of 2012 will not be officially started until the first half of 2013, which is also good for the market in the first half of next year. Although the steel price will rise in the first half of next year, we expect its rise to be limited. According to the data, the year-on-year growth rate of China's crude steel production was 2% in August 2012. Assuming that China's economic growth rate in the first quarter of 2013 was 7.8%, even if the growth rate of crude steel production increased by about 5%, the average daily crude steel production was only about 2million tons, equivalent to 730 million tons per year. According to the energy production in 2012 and the environmental trend in 2016, it is possible to completely find out the fire resistance test method for building components gb/t 993 Due to the adoption of full digital measurement controller and low-noise sensor 78 ⑴ 999 (ISO834 ⑴ 999) to eliminate most small and medium-sized paper enterprises, the annual capacity utilization rate is only about 79%, and there is still a large surplus of capacity. It can be seen from this that the potential supply of steel in China is far greater than the rising space of demand, and the rising prices of steel prices belong to the rising market with limited stage space

to sum up, the steel market is a market with excess supply. The probability of price decline is greater than that of price rise, and the time and range of price rise will be limited. When the market demand is relatively small, the adjustment of steel price is mainly caused by its inventory cycle, and seasonal factors play an increasingly significant role in market changes