The hottest steel price rises and falls capricious

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Steel prices rise and fall capriciously, and the weak trend stabilized in the beginning of 2017

last week, the steel market price continued to plunge. Affected by the continuous decline in the futures market and billet prices, the market mentality was biased, and the year-end capital was tight. Most merchants actively reduced prices and shipped goods, but the market transaction was still light. Although Hebei started environmental protection and production restriction again during the period, the impact is small, and the inventory is still rising slightly. Taking into account the gradual contraction of the demand side, especially the reduction of 300 yuan/ton of the ex factory price of screw threads by Hegang in early January, the bearish sentiment in the market intensified. Specifically:

construction steel: the price of construction steel in the domestic market continued to weaken last week. As of last Friday, the average price of HRB400 20mm deformed steel bars in 24 cities across the country was 3315 yuan/ton, down 109 yuan/ton from December 23; The average price of hpb300 8mm high-speed wire in 24 major cities across the country was 3415 yuan/ton, down 106 yuan/ton from December 23. With the exception of steel mills in Xinjiang, prices in other regions showed a sharp correction, with East China and North China leading the decline

on the whole, as the Spring Festival approaches, the market demand shrinks rapidly, and the positive expectations for the reduction of production of medium frequency furnaces and blast furnaces in the early stage have been exhausted. After the early speculation, the steel price has gradually returned to flat

for the market this week, the author believes that in 2017, the steel market may not have a good start, and the market may continue to be weak this week. Specifically, first of all, the futures snail broke down again, and market confidence was suppressed again. At the same time, the spot price rose too much, and it may take the initiative to fall and repair this week; Secondly, the current round of spot prices has changed from profit taking to multi head stampede. At the same time, it is difficult to synchronize the delivery volume of steel mills with market transactions, and the contradiction between market supply and demand will continue to intensify; Moreover, the market inventory is high, and the financial pressure gradually appears at the end of the year. According to my statistics, the national rebar inventory was 4.6634 million tons on the 30th, an increase of 149300 tons over the 23rd; Wire stock was 1.1428 million tons, an increase of 78200 tons over the 23rd. On the whole, domestic building materials prices are expected to continue to be weak this week

hot rolled coil: the market price of domestic hot rolled coil fell last week. The average price of 3.0mm hot rolled coil in 24 major markets in China was 3862 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan/ton from the previous week; The average price of 4.75mm hot rolled coil was 3786 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton from the previous week

in the East China market: the market price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai has a high level and a downward trend. Towards the end of the year, some businesses have closed down early for reconciliation. At present, the market turnover improved slightly last week. On the one hand, the downstream positions were low; On the other hand, the overall futures market is down, and the merchants withdraw funds at the end of the year. Therefore, after the willingness to ship increases, there is a certain downward trend. As of press time, the mainstream quotation of 1500mm plain carbon steel coil is yuan/ton, and the quotation of 1800mm wide coil is yuan/ton. Low alloy 1500mm mainstream quotation yuan/ton, 1800mm low alloy quotation yuan/ton

at present, the inventory of UV permeable plastics combined with fast curing adhesives in the overseas market is hovering at a low level. Last week, there was a slight conversion between the inventory and the delivery volume, which was significantly greater than the delivery volume. In addition, there are still some resources to the market in the later period, and the inventory may increase after the festival. According to the situation of steel mills, orders have declined recently, and the transportation capacity in the North has recovered, so there is a certain situation of going south. In the later stage, resources will increase in the short term, which will have a certain drag effect on future prices of high-end refining and engineering plastics

in the South China market: the price of hot coil in Guangzhou market fluctuated last week. So far, the price of common coil above 4.75mm in the leading steel mills is RMB/ton, Some low-cost resources uali said: "Compared with glass fiber or carbon fiber, the price of 2.75mm roll is between yuan/ton and 3770 yuan/ton, slightly lower than that of the previous weekend.

in the market, the market fell slightly last week, dragged down by the continuous decline of black futures and steel billets. The general thick roll fell to 3680 yuan/ton, and the futures rebounded slightly on Wednesday. The spot price in the local market actively followed up, and the transaction was ok, but it was difficult to hide the decline in the later period, and some profitable businesses were unstable, The price has been reduced by a large margin. With the end of the month approaching, the market demand has gradually weakened. In order to strengthen shipment, the prices of merchants continue to fall, but the effect of price reduction and promotion is general, and the overall transaction in the market is light. According to incomplete statistics, Le's inventory of hot-rolled coils last week was 343000 tons, an increase of 11000 tons over the previous week. Judging from the current inventory, it is still on the low side. The resources of arrival are mainly concentrated in Sha Steel, Yan steel, Lianyuan Steel, etc. according to the current situation, the price of hot coil in Guangzhou may continue to be adjusted in the short term

in North China market: last week, the price of hot rolling in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei fluctuated and fell, with local panic in the market. The low price was recognized by the market, and the transaction improved. However, after the price rebounded to more than 3700 yuan/ton in the middle of the week, the transaction turned bad again. Last week (December 30 to December 24), the actual production of 23 production lines of 15 hot-rolled steel mills in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei was 1.2723 million tons, a decrease of 3800 tons compared with the previous week; The capacity utilization rate was 94.08%, down 0.28% from the previous week

on Thursday, Hebei province again introduced environmental protection measures to limit production, which had little impact on the blast furnace production of steel mills. The market inventory was still on the rise throughout the week, and the transaction performance was poor. In terms of funds, the gc001 treasury bond reverse repo rate on the Shanghai Stock Exchange rose sharply from 5.80% on Tuesday, and soared to 33% in the late trading. In the next few days, there was also a sharp intraday shock, and the end of the year was the time for the sharp return of market funds, so the tension of funds is self-evident

futures also showed a trend of breaking and falling last week. Although it rebounded in the middle of the week, it was weak, and the discount of futures 1705 contract reached more than 300 yuan/ton, which shows that the market is not overly optimistic about the medium and long term. Most businesses are cautiously optimistic about 2017. After a significant decline in prices, they are willing to take the initiative or passively store in winter, but it is difficult to grasp the timing of stocking. It is expected that the market will not improve before the Spring Festival, and there is a great possibility of continued weak shocks

medium board: last week, the market price of domestic medium board fell slightly, with Zhengzhou and Nanchang falling the most. Down 180 yuan/ton. As of the close of last Friday, from the average price of 23 cities across the country, the price of 8mm ordinary board was 3903 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74 yuan/ton compared with December 23; The average price of 20mm ordinary plate was 3597 yuan/ton, a decrease of 97 yuan/ton compared with December 23; The average price of 20mm low alloy plate was 3739 yuan/ton, a decrease of 96 yuan/ton compared with December 23

inventory: last week, the total inventory of medium-sized plates nationwide was 906900 tons, an increase of 15100 tons over the previous period. In terms of cities, Hangzhou, a city with a significant increase in inventory, increased by 6900 tons. Last week, the market fundamentals continued to be weak. From the overall news, the inventory in circulation has increased, and the output of steel mills is relatively stable. These two fundamentals are relatively negative. Market demand fell significantly near the end of the year, and the short-term consolidation of futures continued to weaken, which continued to affect the market mentality. In terms of relative benefits, the monthly guidance price and lock list price of steel mills have a small adjustment range, and there is still strong support from the perspective of cost. It is comprehensively expected that the market will continue to consolidate and operate in stages

cold rolling: last week, the mainstream of the national cold rolling market was weak, and the market transaction performance was general. Especially in the South China market, due to the inspection of the central environmental protection supervision group, the terminal demand performance was extremely poor, and some businesses mainly based on end customers said they had not offered to make external quotations. Price: as of press release, price: as of press release, the national average price of 0.5mm cold rolling is 5014 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from December 23. The average price of 1.0mm cold rolling was 4720 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton from December 23

steel mills: according to the survey data last week, among the 29 cold rolling production enterprises (a total of 47 cold rolling production lines), a total of 3 production lines were shut down and 12 production lines were unsaturated, with an overall operating rate of 93.62%; The capacity utilization rate was 80.95%, a small increase of 0.05% over the previous week; The weekly output was 819400 tons, a small increase of 0500 tons compared with the previous week; The inventory of the steel plant was 427900 tons, a decrease of 17100 tons compared with the previous week. In terms of inventory: Japan monitored the inventory of 23 cities. Last week, the cold rolling inventory was 1011900 tons, a decrease of 4900 tons compared with the previous week, a decrease of 38300 tons compared with the previous month, and a year-on-year decrease of 219200 tons

Market: affected by the volatile operation of the electronic disk market, the spot price of cold rolling across the country was weak as a whole last week, and the mentality of businesses in a hurry to ship was obvious; However, according to the author's understanding from the steel plant, although the performance of the spot market in late December was not optimistic, in view of the fact that the steel plant's own direct supply orders were OK, it is expected that the futures price policy in February will not fall, and the overall flat market is most likely

generally speaking, the national cold rolling market was weak last week, and it is expected to be weak and stable this week

profile steel: last week, the domestic profile market price fell weakly. Based on the market transaction situation, it was not effectively released and the continuous decline in cost, resulting in the mentality of spot steel has always been short. In addition, the ex factory price of steel mills fell again at the beginning of the week, forcing the spot end to constantly loosen the price in order to ship. As of the close of last Friday, the average price of 14 major markets nationwide: the national average price of 200*100h section steel was 3332 yuan/ton, down 148 yuan/ton from the previous week; The national average price of 300*300h section steel was 3415 yuan/ton, down 156 yuan/ton from the previous week

at present, the price of billet is in a weak state of maintaining stability, and the futures disk is difficult to have a relatively obvious tendency to improve. In addition, the continuous decline of the surrounding market at this time limits the stability of the local market price. The rebound of futures in the middle of the week caused a slight release of demand, and traders took the opportunity to steadily ship and digest part of their own inventory. Therefore, the inventory situation of the overall market is currently relatively optimistic. However, with the arrival of January, the phenomenon of shrinking demand will further expand, and the digestion speed of inventory will also become slow. Therefore, it is comprehensively expected that the domestic steel market price may continue to remain low this week

on the whole, the domestic steel market price continued to fall sharply last week, and various varieties had a certain panic mentality. In addition, factors such as the decline in demand caused poor market transactions. Therefore, for spot traders, rapid shipment and cash out is the best choice. In conclusion, whether from the perspective of cost or from the perspective of market mentality, the bearish mentality of the market continues to spread under the condition that the billet and futures markets have not played a role in boosting

although some steel mills still have a slow decline, they cannot support the stability of the overall market price. Not only that, judging from the subsequent arrival of most varieties, its inventory resources will have an obvious increasing trend in the later period, but now it has entered the off-season of demand, and the demand will further decrease with the passage of time. Therefore, it is comprehensively expected that the domestic steel market price may be dominated by weak operation this week

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