Reasons for the current profit situation of the ho

2022-10-03
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The profit status, reasons and impact on listed enterprises of rubber antioxidant

rubber antioxidant is mainly to inhibit the aging process of rubber and improve the application performance and service life; It can be divided into aldehyde amine (antioxidant a), quinoline (antioxidant RD), p-phenylenediamine (antioxidant 4020), diphenylamine (antioxidant DFC-34), phenol (antioxidant 2246), heterocyclic (antioxidant MB), phosphite (antioxidant TNP). Amine antioxidant accounts for about 55% of domestic antioxidants, of which p-phenylenediamine antioxidant 4020 accounts for about 87.5%, Traditional communication base stations, which account for 48% of all antioxidants, generally use high-capacity lead-acid batteries with diesel generators as backup power systems, and quinoline antioxidants account for about 29%. From the perspective of market development direction, the future industry competition will mainly focus on product 4020 and Rd. This paper mainly analyzes the current profit situation, reasons and impact on listed enterprises from the products RD and 4020

1. The mainstream products of antioxidant still have a gross profit of more than 2000 yuan/ton

at the time of leaving the old and ushering in the new, various bulk commodity industries are in distress in the continuous decline of prices, and are on the verge of loss or even below the loss line. Although the antioxidant industry is also facing the risk of price decline, it still shows a high level of profitability. Taking quinoline antioxidant RD as an example, according to zhuochuang monitoring, its monthly gross profit was 2162.5 yuan/ton as of January 22, The monthly gross profit rate reached 26.79%, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.09%, and the gross profit of p-phenylenediamine antioxidant 4020, which accounts for a relatively high proportion of antioxidant, is also about 3000 yuan/ton. Now the specific analysis of its cost profit is as follows:

from the perspective of raw material cost of RD, the raw material cost is mainly the procurement cost of aniline and acetone, of which about 0.7 tons of acetone and 0.5 tons of aniline are consumed for each ton of antioxidant Rd, At present, the purchase price of acetone in East China mainstream market is 3325 yuan/ton, and that of aniline in East China mainstream market is 5150 yuan/ton, so the raw material cost of producing 1 ton of RD is about 4902.5 yuan/ton

from the auxiliary cost of large enterprises producing RD in China, the workshop cost (labor, management, equipment depreciation, etc.) and other costs (finance, logistics, etc.) are about 1800 yuan/ton

on the whole, the total cost of RD is about 6950 yuan/ton, so according to the current sales price of yuan/ton, the current gross profit of antioxidant is about 2200 yuan/ton

in terms of the raw material cost of 4020, the raw material cost is mainly the production cost of RT Peisi and MIBK, of which MIBK is mainly purchased, while RT Peisi is mainly produced by nitrobenzene and aniline, which are patented products of each antioxidant factory, while aniline and nitrobenzene are mainly produced by pure benzene. Now the gross profit of 4020 is calculated based on the consumption ratio of pure benzene and MIBK, as shown in Figure 2

for each ton of antioxidant 4020 produced, about 0.7 tons of pure benzene and about 0.4 tons of MIBK are consumed. At present, the purchase price of pure benzene in East China mainstream market is 4450 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of MIBK in East China mainstream market is 6300 yuan/ton, so the raw material cost of 4020 produced by 1 ton is about 5635 yuan/ton

from the auxiliary cost of large enterprises producing 4020 domestically, the workshop cost (labor, management, equipment depreciation, etc.) and other costs (finance, logistics, etc.) are about 4500 yuan/ton

on the whole, the total cost of 4020 is about 10135 yuan/ton, so based on the current sales price of 13600 yuan/ton, the current gross profit of antioxidant is 34654) acquiesce in the default installation of the program to the directory c:program filesteststar; Because the C disk is equipped with Windows system files, about yuan/ton

on the whole, whether it is antioxidant RD or 4020, although the current overall profit level has declined year-on-year, and various enterprises also have a certain error impact on the cost due to the level of other expenses, the overall gross profit of the antioxidant industry is relatively considerable compared with that of most current bulk commodities

2. A brief analysis of the reasons for the profits of mainstream antioxidant products

the previous analysis shows that under the current macroeconomic situation, the overall profit of the antioxidant industry is supported by certain positive factors. Now the analysis is as follows:

first, the cost advantage of raw materials is obvious

taking antioxidant RD as an example, from the trend of its main raw materials acetone and aniline, as of January 22, the price of acetone in the East China market fell by 150 yuan/ton to 3325 yuan/ton in January, The decline was 4.32%, 1.48% lower than that of the previous month; The price of aniline in East China market rose by 50 yuan/ton to 5150 yuan/ton in January, an increase of 0.98% The price of RD fell by 100 yuan/ton, or 1.05% The overall decline of raw materials was significantly greater than the decline of RD prices

second, the advantage of large-scale enterprises

from the perspective of the current enterprises that produce antioxidant RD and 4020, both are large-scale domestic production enterprises, and the concentration of production capacity is higher than that of other industries. Taking antioxidant 4020 as an example, its domestic manufacturers are mainly Jiangsu Sinorgchem and Sinopec Nanjing chemical, of which Jiangsu Sinorgchem accounts for more than 50% of the total production capacity with 100000 tons, Nanjing Chemical accounts for about 10% with 20000 tons, and other production capacity is mainly concentrated in Shanxi Xiangyu The large-scale production advantages of shangshun and Exxon chemical plants in Shandong are conducive to saving some auxiliary production costs

third, the export proportion is significant

the export proportion of domestic antioxidant is high, accounting for more than 60% of the total domestic output at present, which is conducive to the digestion of antioxidant enterprises' products, and foreign customers' collection of funds is relatively timely, which is conducive to the normal operation of capital flow of production enterprises

at present, antioxidant is mainly exported to the United States and Southeast Asian countries. Especially in recent years, the world tire and rubber production center has gradually shifted to Southeast Asian countries, and the local demand for antioxidant has increased significantly. The rigid demand for downstream vehicles and the promotion of the domestic implementation of the the Belt and Road development strategy may usher in new opportunities for domestic antioxidant exports

3. Current situation of listed enterprises in antioxidant industry

at present, the listed enterprises of antioxidant in China are mainly Sinochem International and Sinopec Nanjing chemical, which belong to Jiangsu Sinorgchem Technology Co., Ltd., which are also two enterprises with a large proportion of production capacity in the antioxidant industry. The proportion of antioxidant products in Sinochem International and Sinopec is as follows:

antioxidant products account for about 32% of Sinochem International's products, and the revenue share is relatively high. In particular, as a leading enterprise in the world antioxidant industry, Jiangsu Sinorgchem technology produces RD and 4020 with high quality and high market share, and constantly optimizes the product structure, laying a foundation for improving Sinochem International's overall revenue

especially its three factories, Shandong Shengao Chemical Co., Ltd., Tai'an Shengao Chemical Co., Ltd. and Anhui Shengao Chemical Technology Co., Ltd., started higher in 2015, with an output of more than 100000 tons. Thanks to the company's long-term attention and investment in cleaner production and water treatment, the company's environmental friendly additives market is still gradually expanding

as a large state-owned enterprise, Sinopec has a wide range of products, and there is no lack of products mainly engaged in monopoly industries, such as isophthalic acid, sulfur, EVA, etc. as the company's fine chemical industry, the proportion of antioxidant is relatively small, and its antioxidant capacity accounts for 18.93% of the total industry capacity. Although the overall operation was high in 2015, its contribution to the group's revenue is still low

in 2016, Sinopec plans to establish a fine chemical subsidiary and put antioxidant into the fine chemical plant for production, and its production intensity may be further improved

4. The profit of antioxidant in the first quarter of 2016 is still considerable

in the future, the investment in antioxidant industry has attracted much attention, and some domestic antioxidant enterprises also have plans for further investment, such as Henan Kailun and Caoxian stil, which have plans to invest in antioxidant RD, so what is the trend in the first quarter

in terms of raw materials, for pure benzene, in January and February, Ningbo Zhongjin Petrochemical 480000 T/a pure benzene plant was shut down unexpectedly, resulting in a shortage of spot resources in the yard. In addition, the high cost of port inventory supported the market, and the domestic pure benzene market operated at a high level in the short term. However, the overall periphery is weak, and the replenishment of import sources after the year will effectively supplement the spot market. Therefore, the pure benzene market showed a short-term strength in the first quarter, while the probability of weakening in the later period was large, and the overall price fluctuation range was limited

aniline is expected to be weak in the first quarter, so it is difficult to do much in terms of price. Although the domestic demand for upstream pure benzene is large, the external price is falling and difficult to be strong, while the supply exceeds demand and the demand is insufficient in the downstream of aniline; However, from the data of the past two years, the export of aniline is still good. On the whole, there is no obvious positive in the market

under the influence of the Spring Festival holiday, the demand for acetone started relatively slowly. In February, it was mainly to digest the inventory of ports and manufacturers. The market may recover in early March, the demand increased, and the price or small domestic coke spot market weakened and rose

the price of MIBK is relatively stable under the weak demand around the Spring Festival, and the market price may fall slightly in March. On this basis, the profits of RD and 4020, the main products of antioxidant in the first quarter of 2016, are as follows:

forecast of antioxidant profit trend in the first quarter of 2016

it can be seen from the above table that the prices of aniline, acetone, MIBK and pure benzene, the main raw materials of antioxidant in the first quarter of 2016, fluctuated little in the whole in the first quarter, and had a limited impact on the cost of antioxidant raw materials. The gross profit of antioxidant RD remained above 2000 yuan/ton, The gross profit of 4020 is also more than 3000 yuan/ton

extrusion technology suppliers can show what they can

5 The impact of antioxidant products on the income of listed enterprises

from the income of antioxidant RD and 4020 products, the annual profit income of Jiangsu Sinorgchem RD is: 2200 yuan/ton * 5000 tons =11million yuan; The annual profit income of 4020 is: 3465 yuan/ton * 90000 tons =312 million yuan, with a total income of 323 million yuan, while the annual income of Sinochem International is 28.241 billion yuan, accounting for about 1.14%. From the first quarter gross profit forecast, the operating income of antioxidant products has little impact on the overall income of Sinochem International

the annual profit income of Sinopec Nanhua RD is: 2200 yuan/ton * 30000 tons =66 million yuan; 4020's profit income is: 3465 yuan/ton * 20000 tons =69.3 million yuan, with a total income of 135 million yuan, while Sinopec's annual income is 1536.837 billion yuan, accounting for about 0.009%. From the perspective of gross profit in the first quarter, the operating income of antioxidant products has little impact on Sinopec's overall income

based on the above analysis, under the current macroeconomic situation, the profitability of mainstream antioxidant products at present and for a period of time in the future is considerable compared with that of most bulk commodities, especially listed enterprises such as Sinochem International and Sinopec Nanjing chemical, whose development in the field of antioxidant has considerable scale advantages and financial strength, and some enterprises with investment plans need to be based on actual needs, financial strength Considering market competition and other factors, we should be cautious when entering the market

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